Q&A

Should We Break Up With Someone If a Psychology Test Predicts We Will in the Future?
Ronald Rogge Answers

I would not give that advice for a couple reasons.

First, the test is designed to be a difficult test of skill. That is part of the way we are able to assess people’s underlying attitudes toward their partners—by keeping their conscious mind quite busy with a fast-paced task. However, because it is a difficult task, a small portion of people will do poorly on the task simply because it is too confusing or difficult for them, not because they are likely to break up.

Second, the test predicted break ups over 12 months. That is quite a long time and could give individuals more than enough time to try to strengthen their relationships—particularly if those relationships are still important to them. The test assesses attitudes, but attitudes can change for the better.

If their performance on the test suggested that their implicit attitude toward their partner was growing more negative than positive (suggesting greater risk for break up), I would suggest that they use that feedback as a wake-up call to reinvest in their relationship. This could be as simple as spending more quality time together or treating one another with more kindness and less anger on a day-to-day basis. Small changes like that can make a big difference over time.

If you are interested in taking the test (as part of a follow-up study currently under way), go to my webpage or directly to the survey itself.

Ronald Rogge is a professor of psychology at the University of Rochester.

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Q&A

Does the Virtual World Need to Build in a Sense of Touch?
Josh Ackerman Answers

I wouldn’t say that a sense of touch needs to be added to the virtual world. People are able to effectively process a great deal of information without touch. And our research doesn’t speak to the presence vs. absence of touch, more to how different qualities of touch affect us. However, I would say that a lot of the information we take for granted is missing in the virtual world because of the absence of tactile experience. We only have five senses, so we lose quite a bit when we ignore one. People are also strongly engaged with the world through touch (it’s the primary sense involved in manipulating our environments). Witness the rise of touch-sensitive electronic devices.

Our research shows that the qualities of the things we touch—the weight, texture, and hardness of objects—profoundly influence the impressions we form and decisions we make, even about unrelated people and situations. All of that is lost in a world without touch. To some degree, that’s a good thing because these environmental influences can contaminate our thoughts. But of course to another degree, that’s a bad thing because people feel more connected to the things they touch, they are more confident about the impressions they form, and they simply have more information from the act of touching. So I think we will begin to see more touchable devices as the electronic/virtual world evolves, and there really may be something missing from our online experiences until that happens.

Josh Ackerman is a professor of marketing at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

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Q&A

How Hard Is It to Predict the Future of Science and Technology?
William Halal Answers

Forecasting anything is an enormous challenge, much less “predicting” the state of the world decades from now. My TechCast project is in the business of forecasting, but we make a point of avoiding the word “prediction” for that very reason. A prediction implies having access to some source of special knowledge that permits a precise outcome—almost impossible in the social world. We use the term “forecast” because it means a most likely estimate based on some form of research method and sound information gathering. This is possible, and it is increasingly being done by pooling knowledge online using “collective intelligence.”

For more than a decade, TechCast has scanned the literature and surveyed 100 experts worldwide to forecast technology breakthroughs and their social impact. We identify trends driving a forecast and obstacles opposing it, summarize other forecasts made by other sources, and have our experts review all this background data to reach their best estimates. Although I think this approach provides the best possible answers to tough questions, we miss the mark by about plus or minus three years for forecasts a decade out, and sometimes a lot more.

For anything beyond two decades out, the sources of error mount dramatically, especially because the world is changing so quickly that present assumptions will soon prove invalid. Our forecasts suggest that most of the big breakthroughs now anticipated—green technologies, alternative energy, artificial intelligence, biogenetic medical care—are likely to arrive well before 2050. In fact, exploding information technology and knowledge are likely to unify the globe into some type of coherent world system between 2020 and 2030 out of sheer necessity. The mounting threats of climate change, energy shortages, environmental collapse, WMDs, terrorism, and other elements of the “Global Megacrisis” are forcing this historic transition, and global gross domestic product will double about 2020, making the present global order unsustainable and demanding a form of “global consciousness.” Our surveys of the megacrisis show that the next decade or two will either see a crucial turning point to a “mature” global society or we are likely to witness the collapse of civilization in major parts of the world.

In sum, 40 years is a very long time given today’s exploding rate of knowledge and change. 2050 will be a very different world, with very different capabilities and interests. Prescient individuals can always gauge the broad outlines of how the world will change, but with such huge uncertainty beyond our known sphere of consciousness, it would better to think of these as “visions” rather than forecasts, much less predictions. The real issue is which of the many possible visions to pursue.

William Halal is an emeritus professor of management, technology, and innovation at George Washington University and the president of TechCast.

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Q&A

What Spiritual App Is There a Market for?
Paul Lamb Answers

For those who want to move beyond worshiping their cell phones to worshiping on their cell phones, a wide range of downloadable mobile applications are now available. With an iPhone or other smartphone, the spiritually inclined can look up holy book verses, access meditation instructions, or receive prayer reminders on the fly. There’s even an app for Muslims to locate the nearest restaurants serving permissible (Halal) foods.

But today’s religious apps for mobile phones are largely limited to generic, singular activities—like reading the Bible or identifying holy days. They are targeted at individuals with general religious interests or informational needs. What are needed next are more personalized communication apps that connect individuals with their own local communities of faith and the day-to-day activities of those communities.

Instead of simply looking up a Torah verse, for example, next-generation apps might also allow users to retrieve service times at their local synagogue, communicate with other members of the congregation via a mobile social network, access live streaming or recorded audio/video services, and receive updates and individualized prayers from their rabbi—all on a single cell phone application. Add on the ability to organize events, sign up for classes, and make contributions or tithe directly from a smartphone and voila! You’ve got your very own “church in a pocket” app.

Such all-in-one apps could also be integrated with mobile location-based services (LBS) like Foursquare, which allow users to know when fellow church members are nearby. In the case of a temple or church, the leadership could keep track of how many congregants have arrived for a service or event (perhaps to determine critical mass?) and even identify them by name. Naturally, each community would customize and brand its own app to target its own needs and user base, much in the same way that websites currently do.

Ultimately, the purpose of “church in a pocket” apps are to enable individual faith-based communities to stay connected, expand their base, and serve up “always on” services to worshipers on the go. While the concept of a religious community mobile app may sound like fast-food religion to some, the fact remains that nearly everyone has a cell phone these days, and the appetite for phone-based apps is increasing dramatically.

People want everything else on the go, so why not bring them the church on the corner, too?

Paul Lamb is the head of Man on a Mission Consulting and manages a “Technology & Spiritual Practice” training program for faith-based communities and technologists.

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